Divergent Electoral Judgements: Muhammadiyah’s Organisational Values and Pre-Election Voting Intentions in Kendari During Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election

Authors

• Muhammad Ikhsan, IAIN KendariFollow
• Nurjannah Nurjannah, IAIN KendariFollow
• Rini Harjanti Poapa, IAIN KendariFollow
• Irma Irayanti, IAIN KendariFollow

Abstract

This article examines how candidate assessments and organisational commitments enter pre-election voting intentions among Muhammadiyah members and active sympathisers in Kendari during Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election. A sequential explanatory mixed-methods design combined a survey of 280 respondents with subsequent interviews involving 17 purposively selected informants. Prabowo–Gibran received 41.07% of stated intentions, Anies–Muhaimin 33.57%, and Ganjar–Mahfud 25.36%; no pair secured majority support. Multinomial logistic regression showed positive associations between candidate evaluation and preferences for both Anies–Muhaimin and Prabowo–Gibran relative to Ganjar–Mahfud. Economic considerations reached significance in the Prabowo–Gibran comparison, whereas religious–social considerations did so in the Anies–Muhaimin comparison. Organisational involvement and social-environment influence were not statistically significant in either comparison. Interview accounts articulated programme continuity, reformist aspirations grounded in tajdid, and reassurance against political disruption. References to Khittah framed candidate choice as a personal decision distinct from an organisational position. The study contributes by distinguishing organisational participation from the interpretation of collective commitments in electoral judgement. Its findings concern intentions and justifications within the recruited networks, rather than causal effects or confirmed voting behaviour.

Recommended Citation

Ikhsan, Muhammad; Nurjannah, Nurjannah; Poapa, Rini Harjanti; and Irayanti, Irma (2026) "Divergent Electoral Judgements: Muhammadiyah’s Organisational Values and Pre-Election Voting Intentions in Kendari During Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election," Jurnal Wacana Politik: Vol. 11: Iss. 3, Article 12.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24198/jwp.v11i3.12
Available at: https://journal.unpad.ac.id/wacanapolitik/vol11/iss3/12