Abstract
In 2026, The European Union’s geoeconomic strategy is increasingly defined by the systemic dynamics of the renewed US-China rivalry, the transatlantic alliance fracture under the Trump administration, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. To mitigate these dynamics, the EU has aggressively pivoted to the Global South, prioritizing the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA). However, the EU also seeks to enforce its normative climate agenda via the imminent December 2026 implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which contains points that also became central to the discussion on the IEU-CEPA. This research utilizes a Neoclassical Realism (NCR) framework and qualitative research method that allows this paper to investigate the collision between the geoeconomic goals of the IEU-CEPA and the normative conditionality of the EUDR. It argues that the EU’s strategy relies on the assumption of normative overlap, which translates into the Global South's acceptance of European environmental regulations. However, the findings demonstrate that Indonesia leverages the impending IEU-CEPA ratification as a bargaining tool against the EUDR to pursue its interests for better terms and conditions. Ultimately, when extraterritorial mandates clash with Indonesia's developmental sovereignty (hilirisasi), Jakarta utilizes the multipolar system, specifically Chinese capital, to bypass Western conditionality, exposing the limits of the dual-track economic statecraft of Europe.
Recommended Citation
Sutiono, Pribadi and Juned, Mansur
(2026)
"The Illusion Of Normative Convergence: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis Of The Ieu-Cepa And Eudr Collision,"
Jurnal Wacana Politik: Vol. 11:
Iss.
3, Article 3.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24198/jwp.v11i3.3
Available at:
https://journal.unpad.ac.id/wacanapolitik/vol11/iss3/3
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